Apr 6, 2020
Coronavirus: India needs 49-day lockdown, not 21
The 21-day lockdown will not be enough to contain the spread of coronavirus in India, according to a study.
Instead, the lockdown must be extended to 49 days, say researchers, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics in the University of Cambridge
The study was based on 4 scenarios :-
1) Current 21-day lockdown. While it reduces the rate of infectives, it does not do much when it comes to reducing their number in order to prevent a resurgence.
2) When the 21-day lockdown is followed by a relaxation of 5 days and is followed immediately by another lockdown of 28 days, the researchers found that here also the number of infected do not go down enough to prevent a resurgence.
3) On third scenario looks at three lockdowns. The first 21-day lockdown is followed by a lockdown of 28 days, which is followed by a lockdown of 18 days. These three lockdowns are separated by 5-day relaxation periods. This also brings the number of infective below 10 where explicit contact tracing followed by quarantine may be successful in preventing a resurgence.
4) Scenario four that appears to be the most optimum advocates for one 49-day long lockdown. It also brings down the number of infectives below 10
Researchers have also found that there is a drastic slowdown in the mortality rate from the 21-day period to a 49-day period. The mortality estimates stand at 2,727 in a period of 73 days, while it drops to 11 in scenario two, to eight in scenario three and six in scenario four.
It also suggests sustained periods of lockdown with periodic relaxation will reduce the number of cases to levels where individualised social contact tracing and quarantine may become feasible.
